WorldShift
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Scenario Lab

What If

Hypothetical paths only — not forecasts. Each scenario lists assumptions, formula, source, and limitations.

Scenario only. Not a forecast.

Scenario templates

GDP growth

V_t = V_0 × (1 + r)^t

Source · National accounts / World Bank GDP

Limitations · Holds FX and deflator mix constant in a single rate.

Inflation

Level or additive shock path

Source · National CPI / BLS / Eurostat

Limitations · No second-round wages or policy reaction function.

Currency change

Illustrative pass-through to CPI

Source · Linked inflation series

Limitations · Not a full FX model.

Population growth

V_t = V_0 × (1 + g)^t

Source · UN / national statistical offices

Limitations · No age structure or migration shocks.

Debt growth

Linear path to target debt/GDP

Source · IMF / national debt stock

Limitations · Interest bill and primary balance not explicit.

Interest rate change

Policy-rate hold or step (scenario cards)

Source · Central bank decisions

Limitations · Does not price the full yield curve.

Ready scenarios

Hypothetical scenarioWhat if India grows at 8% until 2035?Compound India’s latest GDP at 8% annually and compare with a 6.5% baseline path.OpenHypothetical scenarioWhat if USD/INR reaches 100?Illustrative sensitivity of import-heavy CPI to a large INR move — not a forecast.OpenHypothetical scenarioWhat if inflation remains at 6% for five years?Hold CPI at 6% and contrast with a 4% target-consistent path.OpenHypothetical scenarioWhat if population growth falls to 0.5%?Project population with a lower growth rate versus recent trend.OpenHypothetical scenarioWhat if government debt reaches 100% of GDP?Linear path from today’s debt ratio to 100% of GDP over a chosen horizon.Open