Scenario Lab · Hypothetical
What if USD/INR reaches 100?
Illustrative sensitivity of import-heavy CPI to a large INR move — not a forecast.
Scenario only. Not a forecast.
Starting value
4.8%
Default rate
0.4% / yr
Horizon
5 years
Scenario vs baseline
Growth rate0.4%
Baseline end
4.9%
Scenario end
4.9%
Difference
0.0%
Midpoint (2029)
4.9%
| Year | Scenario | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 2027 | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 2028 | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 2029 | 4.9% | 4.8% |
| 2030 | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 2031 | 4.9% | 4.9% |
Assumptions
- Partial pass-through from FX to CPI
- Policy response held constant (unrealistic on purpose)
- Does not model second-round wage effects
Formula / methodology
Simple additive shock path for illustration only
Source metric: India Inflation
Limitations: illustrative arithmetic only; FX, policy response, and structural breaks are out of scope.