Scenario Lab · Hypothetical
What if government debt reaches 100% of GDP?
Linear path from today’s debt ratio to 100% of GDP over a chosen horizon.
Scenario only. Not a forecast.
Starting value
82.0% of GDP
Default rate
2% / yr
Horizon
9 years
Scenario vs baseline
Baseline end
90.0% of GDP
Scenario end
100.0% of GDP
Difference
10.0% of GDP
Midpoint (2031)
92.0% of GDP
| Year | Scenario | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82.0% of GDP | 82.0% of GDP |
| 2027 | 84.0% of GDP | 82.9% of GDP |
| 2028 | 86.0% of GDP | 83.8% of GDP |
| 2029 | 88.0% of GDP | 84.7% of GDP |
| 2030 | 90.0% of GDP | 85.6% of GDP |
| 2031 | 92.0% of GDP | 86.4% of GDP |
| 2032 | 94.0% of GDP | 87.3% of GDP |
| 2033 | 96.0% of GDP | 88.2% of GDP |
| 2034 | 98.0% of GDP | 89.1% of GDP |
| 2035 | 100.0% of GDP | 90.0% of GDP |
Assumptions
- Primary balance and interest dynamics not explicitly modeled
- GDP denominator assumed stable in the ratio math
Formula / methodology
Linear interpolation toward 100
Source metric: India Gov. Debt
Limitations: illustrative arithmetic only; FX, policy response, and structural breaks are out of scope.